Red Sea crisis sparks hike in vessel bunching

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Red Sea crisis causes vessel bunching to rapidly rises

Sea-Intelligence has revealed that vessel bunching increased considerably at ports and terminals following the pandemic, partially due to the Red Sea crisis.

The term “vessel bunching” is defined as the number of sailings in a given week that exceeds the number of weekly services. To identify patterns, Sea-Intelligence estimated vessel bunching as an average observed over a rolling 10-week period.

Figure 1 depicts the relationship between Asia and North Europe. The degree of vessel bunching was very modest in the eight years preceding the pandemic but increased dramatically during the pandemic.

© Sea-Intelligence

By the end of 2023, everything had practically returned to normal. However, the Red Sea crisis in 2024 has resulted in a fresh increase in vessel bunching, returning to levels nearly reaching the epidemic high.

Sea-Intelligence noted that higher vessel bunching increases strain on ports and terminals.

READ: Red Sea port calls plunge by 85 per cent

Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, said: “While the offered capacity may be the same over two weeks, i.e., no vessel sailing in one week followed by two vessels sailing the next week, having two vessels depart in one week and zero vessels in the second-week results in an extraordinarily high workload in one week and none in the second week.

“This clearly increases the risk of port congestion – and as a ripple effect, a similar crunch on the use of truck, rail, and barge capacity. Vessel bunching can therefore be seen as a proxy measure for the pressure on ports and the corresponding likelihood of congestion problems.

“As such, given the data, there is no indication that the pressure on ports is about to be alleviated.”

In September, Russel Group reported that the economic loss caused by disruption in two of the world’s largest shipping routes, the Red Sea and Panama Canal, is an estimated $1.25 trillion.

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