US and China Boom Despite Trade War
The US and China are continuing to experience year-on-year (YoY) export and export growth despite the trade war, according to Kuehne + Nagel’s latest World Trade Indicator (WTI).
The WTI, a real-time assessment of global trading activity, says China’s imports will grow by 21.1% in the second half of 2018 compared with the same time period in 2017.
China’s exports will also increase, according to the WTI, by 10.6% in the second half of 2018. The US is also expected to enjoy solid import and export growth of 9.1% and 7.1% respectively in the second half of 2018.
The figures suggest strong demand for consumer goods in the US, with imports of furniture, vehicles and electronic and capital goods rising.
Both countries have seen sea freight traffic increase at their ports since the start of 2018, with the US enjoying a 4.5% spike, while China’s has experienced a rise of 2.9% compared with the same time period in 2017.
According to the WTI, this points to an “extraordinarily dynamic fourth quarter”.
The two countries have been engaged in a trade war since April 2017, a dispute which has seen $400 billion worth of tariffs placed on each other’s goods.
On December 3 2018, US President Donald Trump and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping agreed to put a halt to the trade war following the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
More generally, global sea freight has risen by 2.9% since the start of the year, despite declining by 0.3% in November month-on-month (MoM).
World Trade as a whole rose by 6.4% in November YoY, with Australia and Brazil leading the way in terms of exports, increasing by 23.9% and 21.2% respectively.