Sea-Intelligence has assessed the probable impact of real container quantities if the International Longshore Association’s (ILA) strike occurs.
Using historical data, Sea_intelligence expects that the US East Coast will handle 2.3 million TEU in October, which translates to 74,000 TEU per day, with 36,000 in imports and 38,000 in exports.
A strike would block the loading of 20,000 TEU every day.
Once a potential strike has passed, container buildup must be managed in addition to normal flow. The capacity necessary to remove this backlog equals the extra capacity available in the East Coast port systems.
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One method for estimating surplus capacity is to compare the largest number of containers ever handled on the East Coast to the predicted handling in October 2024.
Sea-Intelligence predicted that in October, the port system will be able to expand port handling by 13 per cent over the planned 2.3 million TEU.
Figure 1 shows the time it will take to clear out the backlog of 74,000 TEU created from 1 day of strike, at different levels of excess capacity.
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Sea-Intelligence predicted that the East Coast ports will have 13 per cent surplus capacity above the estimated usual flow of 2.3 million TEU in October, therefore it will take 6 days to clear the backlog from one day of the strike.
If the ports had additional spare capacity, this figure might be decreased to 4-5 days.
However, this implies that a one-week strike in early October will not be settled until mid-November. If a two-week strike occurs, the ports would most likely not return to normal operations until 2025.
