Panama Canal eyes El Niño risk amid cargo surge

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Panama Canal eyes El Niño risk amid cargo surge
The Panama Canal recorded higher transit volumes and cargo tonnage in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, even as the canal authority prepares its operations for a potential severe El Niño event.

The figures were presented during a market update call hosted by Anne Milne, Managing Director of Emerging Markets Corporate Research, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, featuring Dr Ricaurte Vásquez Morales, Administrator, Panama Canal, Ilya Espino de Marotta, Deputy Administrator, Chief Sustainability Officer and Administrator-designate, and Víctor Vial, Vice President of Finance.

As of 30 June, FY2026, the canal averaged 35 daily transits, with a total of 10,726 transits recorded between October and June, a 5.2 per cent increase on the 10,191 transits logged over the same period in FY2025.

The canal handled 389.96 million Panama Canal Universal Measurement System (PC/UMS) tonnes over the period, up 7.2 per cent from 363.66 million PC/UMS tonnes a year earlier, with container ships and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carriers continuing to drive growth.

Dr Vásquez said: “Our strategic initiatives continue to advance with both the port terminal and pipeline projects entering the final prequalification stage, alongside continued progress on the Río Indio reservoir and the Logistics Corridor project.”

READ: Panama Canal advances Corozal, Telfers terminal plans

On the infrastructure side, the Río Indio Lake project, aimed at strengthening long-term water security for the canal and surrounding communities, is progressing through its engineering and design phases, with fieldwork completed ahead of a planned 2027 tender process.

Ilya Espino de Marotta said local development initiatives within the watershed have already engaged more than 1,100 residents through conservation and community programmes, whilst implementation of the resettlement plan continues, with most affected families participating and written compensation standards already established.

On weather risk, Dr Vásquez noted that the probability of a severe El Niño event has risen sharply, from 25 per cent in April to 81 per cent as of July, and warned that “capacity restrictions will likely be implemented, not only in terms of draft limitations but also through reductions in the number of daily booking slots,” though he stressed that the timing and scope of any restrictions would depend on market conditions.

The precautionary measures under consideration would mark the first such restrictions in nearly two years, following an abundant water supply in the canal’s reservoirs driven by heavy rainfall through 2025 and an unusually wet 2026 dry season.

Daily transit auctions remain available to give customers additional flexibility to secure reservations outside standard booking slots.


For more information:

Panama Canal – https://pancanal.com/

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