US and China Boom Despite Trade War


The US and China are continuing to experience year-on-year (YoY) export and export growth despite the trade war, according to Kuehne + Nagel’s latest World Trade Indicator (WTI).

The WTI, a real-time assessment of global trading activity, says China’s imports will grow by 21.1% in the second half of 2018 compared with the same time period in 2017.

China’s exports will also increase, according to the WTI, by 10.6% in the second half of 2018. The US is also expected to enjoy solid import and export growth of 9.1% and 7.1% respectively in the second half of 2018.

The figures suggest strong demand for consumer goods in the US, with imports of furniture, vehicles and electronic and capital goods rising.

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Both countries have seen sea freight traffic increase at their ports since the start of 2018, with the US enjoying a 4.5% spike, while China’s has experienced a rise of 2.9% compared with the same time period in 2017.

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According to the WTI, this points to an “extraordinarily dynamic fourth quarter”.

The two countries have been engaged in a trade war since April 2017, a dispute which has seen $400 billion worth of tariffs placed on each other’s goods.

On December 3 2018, US President Donald Trump and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping agreed to put a halt to the trade war following the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

More generally, global sea freight has risen by 2.9% since the start of the year, despite declining by 0.3% in November month-on-month (MoM).

World Trade as a whole rose by 6.4% in November YoY, with Australia and Brazil leading the way in terms of exports, increasing by 23.9% and 21.2% respectively.

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