Maersk has reported a sharp drop in the average effective tariff rate paid on US imports since the Trump administration announced a new tariff package on 2 April.
According to Maersk’s latest global market update, the average tariff now stands at around 21 per cent per container load, down significantly from the peak of 54 per cent that followed the initial announcement.
While most country-specific tariffs are currently paused as long-term deals are negotiated, tariffs on shipments between the US and China remain in place, according to Maersk’s July market update.
The ongoing US-China trade dispute continues to drive volatility. Maersk notes that, despite Western ambitions to reduce reliance on Chinese manufacturing, “containerised imports from Far East Asia have actually increased, now constituting 51 per cent of total European imports in 2024, up from 49 per cent in 2019.”
China’s total exports in 2024 were about 25 per cent higher than in 2019, with growth supported by “producer price deflation and advantageous exchange rates.”
However, the US-China trade lane has contracted sharply. Maersk confirms that “container volumes between China and the US dropped by 30–40 per cent in April 2025 due to rising tariffs.”
Despite this, China-US trade now represents just 5 per cent of Maersk’s global volumes, and the company has redirected some flows to other, more resilient markets.
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Maersk observed robust container demand growth in the first half of 2025, with many manufacturers advancing orders ahead of tariff changes.
The company forecasts global container demand for 2025 will range from –1 per cent to +4 per cent, with the lower end reflecting the impact of higher tariffs and potential reductions in consumer spending.
Maersk highlights that many businesses overpay tariffs by 5–6 per cent due to fragmented customs management, and around 20 per cent of border delays stem from insufficient customs preparation.
The company stresses the importance of strategic supply chain planning, with Karsten Kildahl noting: “Finished products today are complicated in that they are often being manufactured in several countries and cross borders several times. Optimising border crossings is something businesses need to take a very strategic approach to when dealing with higher trade tariffs. It all starts with good supply chain planning.”
Maersk concludes that, despite a temporary reduction in tariffs, uncertainty remains high, especially as July and August bring key trade negotiation deadlines.
