Concerns are rising within the shipping and energy sectors over the stability of the Strait of Hormuz, following increased hostilities between Iran and Israel.
This strategic waterway, responsible for the transit of about 20 per cent of global oil supplies, is now the focus of heightened risk assessments, according to Saleem Khan, Chief Data and Analytics Officer at Pole Star Global.
Khan reports that the Combined Maritime Forces, which include US, UK, and Saudi contingents, have adopted a “war footing” in light of recent Israeli operations targeting Iranian military and nuclear assets.
The situation intensified after Iranian commanders were killed, prompting Tehran to promise “bitter, painful” retaliation and to launch more than 100 missiles and drones towards Israel.
While shipping through the Strait has not yet been directly affected, Khan cautions that “a full Strait closure, though still an unlikely scenario, remains possible if the conflict deepens”.
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The uncertainty has already impacted markets. While overall vessel numbers remain stable, Khan observes that shipping fixtures are showing signs of slowing.
In a recent development, Khan highlights a collision between two oil tankers, the Adalynn and Front Eagle, in the Persian Gulf near the UAE. Although maritime security firm Ambrey stated the incident was not “security related“, Pole Star Global’s analysis points to potential Automatic Identification System (AIS) jamming.
Khan references reports from the Combined Maritime Force’s JMIC information centre, which has documented electronic interference near Iran’s Port of Bandar Abbas, the site of the collision.
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Khan identifies several scenarios that could threaten the Strait’s openness:
- Proxy or direct attacks: Iranian proxies or direct action against merchant vessels, particularly those flagged by the US or Israel, could rapidly escalate maritime risks.
- Military blockade: Any attempt to close the Strait would represent a major escalation, likely drawing in international naval forces and triggering significant geopolitical consequences.
- Collateral risks: Increased AIS jamming and attacks on infrastructure could force vessels to reroute or face higher insurance costs, even without a total blockade.
Khan further explains that shipping companies are already facing increased war-risk premiums, and even the threat of disruption could push global freight rates higher.
