Despite a fragile trade outlook, DP World reported that 94 per cent of executives expect 2026 volumes to match or exceed 2025, driven by resilience and route diversification.
The survey of 3,500 senior supply chain and logistics executives across eight industries and 19 countries found that 94 per cent expect 2026 trade growth to match or exceed 2025, even amid rising volatility and policy friction.
Specifically, 54 per cent anticipate faster growth than 2025 and 40 per cent expect it to be on par.
This comes despite 53 per cent citing high or very high policy uncertainty and 90 per cent expecting trade barriers to remain unchanged or rise.
Only a quarter foresee negative business impact, with nearly half reporting no effect and 26 per cent anticipating a positive outcome.
These perceptions contrast with IMF projections, which suggest trade volumes may slow to 2.3 per cent in 2026, down from 3.6 per cent in 2025.
Executives see the strongest growth potential in Europe (22 per cent) and China (17 per cent), followed by Asia Pacific (14 per cent) and North America (13 per cent).
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Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, Group Chairman and CEO of DP World, said: “Global trade is becoming increasingly complex, not less so. Our role is clear: to keep trade moving by understanding where friction exists, anticipating where it may emerge next, and investing in the infrastructure, capabilities and partnerships that help our customers operate more efficiently and reliably.”
The survey shows companies are actively redesigning supply chains to manage volatility. Strategic responses include supplier diversification (51 per cent), higher inventories (44 per cent), and friend-shoring (36 per cent).
Executives are also exploring route agility, with 26 per cent planning to use new trade routes and 23 per cent evaluating options, driven by cost savings, improved connectivity, and faster customs clearance.
Border friction remains a major concern, with 60 per cent citing customs as a key source of delays, prompting investment in warehousing, road networks, and border-processing infrastructure.
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Margareta Drzeniek, Managing Partner at Horizon Group, which collaborated on the report, added: “What we’re seeing is confidence with contingency plans. Executives are embedding resilience into strategy by diversifying suppliers, reassessing routes and adding options, because volatility is now the baseline. Those best positioned will be the ones who can turn those resilience plans into measurable performance.”
The GTO platform is designed to provide decision-makers with actionable intelligence on global trade dynamics, underpinned by proprietary research from senior supply chain and logistics executives.
For more information:
DP World – https://www.dpworld.com/en
