Veson Nautical has highlighted how historical orderbook trends impact Capesize time charter rates and asset values, stressing the importance of tracking orderbook activity as an indicator of future fleet growth and earnings.
Veson Nautical noted that the historical orderbook serves as a forward indicator of fleet growth.
When the orderbook expands, more ships enter the market, which can lower TC rates if demand does not keep up. Conversely, when the orderbook shrinks, less new capacity arrives, which can support or increase rates.
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Recent data shows a slowdown in Capesize sales and purchases, with transactions down about 48 per cent year-on-year.
So far in 2025, there have been only 46 vessel sales, compared to 89 in the same period last year. The average age of vessels sold has increased from 12 years to 16 years, showing slower fleet renewal.
Demolition remains low, with just two Capesize ships dismantled this year, despite the fleet getting older.
“If TC rates fall further, scrapping could rise. Asset values are already under pressure, with 20-year-old ships dropping about 3.62 per cent in value since the start of Q2 2025,” noted Veson Nautical.
Currently, Capesize one-year TC rates are just under $19,000 per day, down about 22 per cent compared to last year. Although rerouting around the Red Sea has added some demand, market sentiment remains cautious due to economic uncertainty and tariff risks.
At the same time, the Capesize orderbook is shrinking. New orders are down by about 33 per cent year-on-year, with only 18 vessels ordered in 2025 so far. Around 61 per cent of these are being built in Chinese shipyards.
This decline, combined with weak sales and low scrapping, suggests future supply will tighten.
Veson Nautical concluded that the orderbook is a key indicator of where rates are headed. Although fewer new orders have not yet led to higher rates, mainly due to weak demand and limited vessel removals, supply pressure is expected to increase as these trends continue.
Last year, Veson Nautical introduced IMOS X, a new user experience for the industry’s top IMOS Platform.
