The maritime industry is tentatively preparing for the unfolding reverberations from the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, while commercial vessels continue to voyage the Strait of Hormuz.
Jakob Larsen, Chief Safety & Security Officer at BIMCO, reported that the shipping association has received information indicating that shipowners are exercising extra caution when voyaging around the Red Sea and Persian Gulf, according to CNBC.
BIMCO has since advised shipowners to adopt defence measures outlined in industry guidelines. Recommendations shared with clients include reporting suspicious activity to the UK’s Maritime Trade Operations, reassessing current routes, and prioritising the safety of seafarers, CNBC reported.
The perception of US involvement in recent regional strikes could heighten risks for commercial shipping, according to Larsen. While the US has so far limited its public statements on the matter, Secretary of State Marco Rubio referred to Israel’s actions as “unilateral” and warned on 12 June that “Iran should not target US interests or personnel.”
The US also confirmed it was assisting Israel in intercepting missiles launched into its territory on 13 June.
READ: The multifaceted impact of the Red Sea crisis
“If the United States is suddenly perceived to be involved in attacks, the risk of escalation increases significantly,” said Larsen. “An escalation is likely to impact freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf/Straits of Hormuz. Such an escalation could include missile attacks on ships or laying of sea mines in the Straits.”
Hopes for a full recovery of container trade through the Red Sea have been temporarily thwarted amid the recent violence. At the same time, a hike in insurance premiums for ships, cargo, and crew now appears increasingly probable, CNBC reported.
According to the Chief Shipping Analyst at Xeneta, Peter Sand: “A large-scale return of container ships to the Red Sea seems less likely, a situation which continues to have a major impact on ocean container shipping rates 18 months after Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen began attacking vessels in the region.
“The inevitable disruption and port congestion, as well as the potential for higher oil prices, would cause a spike in ocean freight container shipping rates, with carriers likely also pushing for a ‘security surcharge’ on these trades in the coming days.”
READ: Israel Navy strikes Yemen’s Hodeidah Port
According to shipping association INTERTANKO: “Hormuz is a critical waterway, without alternative, for tanker trades, and any impediment or threat to free movement of shipping would have a significant effect upon the world’s economy.”
Despite rising tensions and fears that Iran may close the Strait in the wake of the conflict, there are several reasons why Iran may choose not to do so, according to CNBC. According to Ellen Wald, President of Transversal Consulting, there is “no benefit” to impeding the flow of oil through the waterway, and any such action would likely provoke further retaliation.
Reuters further reports that Greece and Britain have advised their merchant shipping fleets to avoid sailing through the Gulf of Aden and to log all voyages through the Strait of Hormuz following Israel’s attacks on Iran.
Following the strikes, maritime security firm Ambrey issued a threat circular advising companies and vessels to consider rerouting high-risk transits, CNBC reported.
“In the event of escalation, merchant vessels are advised to reconsider transiting through the Strait of Hormuz and close to Iranian waters, as well as to seek drifting locations close to friendly and protected territorial waters,” Ambrey wrote.
The firm also recommended that vessel owners and operators evaluate the affiliations of their ships as part of risk assessments—particularly to identify any connections to Israel—before voyages through the Arabian Sea, Gulf of Oman, and Persian/Arabian Gulf. According to Ambrey, ships with Israeli affiliations or past links have previously been targeted.
