The pause in the US-China trade war and the resulting demand surge have prompted shipping lines to rapidly increase capacity, according to Sea Intelligence.
On the Asia–North America West Coast (NAWC) route, capacity is set to grow over 30 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in five of the next 11 weeks.
Aggregated figures show a 12.8 per cent increase in capacity for June and a 16.5 per cent rise in July compared to pre-pause levels.
As shown in Figure 1, this represents a sharp ramp-up, amounting to 397,000 TEUs added across both months.
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Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, said: “What is potentially more important is the YoY growth also shown in Figure 1. In June/July, shipping lines are planning to offer approximately 18 per cent more capacity YoY.
“It is of course an open question whether the tariff-induced volume surge will match this capacity injection. However, if it does, it can create a significant issue in the ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach (LA/LB).”
He added: “If we – quite simplistically – assume that the 18 per cent YoY capacity injection matches the volume surge going into the ports of LA/LB, then Figure 2 shows the projected laden import container handling in the ports of LA/LB in June/July.
“It also compares to the maximum monthly volume handled in 2024, as well as the largest monthly volume seen during the pandemic disruptions in 2021.”
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If San Pedro Bay ports experience 18 per cent YoY growth in laden imports, the Port of Los Angeles will see June volumes nearing 2024’s peak and July volumes surpassing the pandemic spike of 2021, reported Sea-Intelligence.
The Port of Long Beach is on track to set new volume records in both June and July.
