Import volumes across major US container gateways are expected to remain below last year’s levels into early autumn, despite temporary year-on-year gains in May and June, according to the latest Global Port Tracker.
The outlook is based on distorted comparisons with 2025, when volumes fell sharply following the introduction of “Liberation Day” tariffs, creating a lower base for this year’s figures.
Jonathan Gold, Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy at the National Retail Federation, said: “The numbers show a year-over-year increase for the next two months, but that’s only because of the sharp fall-off in imports after ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs were announced in April 2025.”
Ports covered by the report handled 2.16 million TEUs in March, up 0.6 per cent year-on-year and 13.6 per cent higher month on month, driven partly by seasonal disruptions linked to Lunar New Year factory closures in Asia and weather-related delays at US terminals.
READ: Japan–US Container shipments drop 8.4 per cent in November
April throughput has yet to be formally reported, but the Global Port Tracker estimates volumes at 2.13 million TEUs, down 3.6 per cent year-on-year.
Forecasts for the remainder of the period show continued volatility: May is projected at 2.17 million TEUs (up 11.1 per cent), June at 2.13 million TEUs (up 8.2 per cent), followed by a decline in July to 2.2 million TEUs (down 7.8 per cent), August at 2.19 million TEUs (down 5.5 per cent), and September at 2.08 million TEUs (down 1.3 per cent).
The data points to a market still adjusting to policy-driven distortions in 2025, with underlying demand trends remaining more subdued than headline year-on-year comparisons suggest.
In February, container volumes from Japan to the US declined 4.1 per cent year-on-year to 42,657 TEUs, according to Descartes Datamyne.
