Shippers front-load Europe ahead of Chinese New Year 2026

January 9, 2026

Shippers are front-loading cargo into Europe, pushing pre–Chinese New Year capacity nearly 50 per cent above historical norms.

Extended transit times around Africa are driving the early surge, with volumes peaking six weeks before the holiday to buffer inventory.

In issue 746 of the Sea-Intelligence Sunday Spotlight, Sea-Intelligence examined capacity deployment trends in the 10 weeks leading up to Chinese New Year (CNY) 2026.

By comparing deployed capacity against a stabilised pre-peak baseline, the analysis identified a pronounced departure from historical patterns.

Shippers appear to be front-loading shipments on the Asia–North Europe trade to offset the impact of extended transit times.

Figure 1 highlights the scale of the shift. Historically (2015–2019), pre-CNY capacity ramps on Asia–North Europe were moderate, rising about 10 per cent from baseline to peak.

READ: Cascading effect reshapes global trade lanes in 2025

In 2026, the projection shows a surge that effectively quadruples that historical growth.

From a 2026 baseline of 282,947 TEU, deployed capacity climbs to 421,825 TEU by Week -6 (six weeks before CNY).

That represents a net addition of 138,878 TEU, a 49.1 per cent increase over baseline. Even accounting for potential vessel delays, the capacity index remains well above 130 through Week -4.

The pattern points to a structural adjustment in network behaviour. With longer transit times around Africa, shippers are moving volumes into Europe earlier than usual, peaking six weeks ahead of the holiday to ensure inventory buffers before the post-CNY drawdown.

Front-loading is also evident on the Asia–Mediterranean trade, which shows the strongest relative growth, surging 62 per cent in five weeks to 278,172 TEU.

Transpacific trades display a different dynamic: Asia–North America West Coast experiences extreme volatility with a late-season spike, while Asia–North America East Coast maintains a high, steady floor, keeping volumes 25 per cent above baseline up to CNY.

In December 2025, operational stability across major east–west container trades deteriorated sharply in 2025, as capacity churn had reached unprecedented levels on Asia–North Europe, Asia–North America, and Asia–Mediterranean routes.