Sea-Intelligence has predicted an early peak season for importers on Transpacific lanes as a perfect storm of events keeps disrupting the supply chain.
Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, has offered a prospectus on capacity in the upcoming 12 weeks (weeks 20-31).
Signs of disruptions are still present within the market owing to the Chinese lockdowns, port congestion, and ongoing negotiations between the ILWU and PMA adding to the complexity of the situation – which may bring more delays across the supply chains.
Murphy has noted there is strong evidence of an early peak season for importers, especially on the Transpacific trade lanes.
Released data shows the sharpest surge occurring in week 22, with offered capacity increasing from 535,200 TEU to 646,500 TEU in week 22 and expected to remain unaffected through week 31.
Based on current vessel deployment, Murphy has noted that capacity growth on the two Transpacific lanes – specifically on the Asia-North America West Coast (Asia-NAWC) – will see an increase by a little over 10 per cent in each of the upcoming 12 weeks compared to the respective weeks in 2019.
The level of growth appears in line with the rise seen during the peak season in 2021, according to Sea-Intelligence.
Turning to the Asia-North America East Coast, Murphy has showed that capacity growth is slated to be higher by 11-17 per cent in the upcoming 12 weeks when annualised over 2019, a more robust surge than on Asia-NAWC, but with a more gradual increase than on Asia-NAWC.
“A lot of this capacity growth on Asia-NAWC is attributed to non-alliance carriers, as they are recording capacity growth of 20-35 per cent in the coming 12 weeks, whereas the alliance carriers are only recording growth of 0-6 per cent in the same period when annualised over 2019,” commented Murphy.
The projected increase in offered capacity on the Asia-Europe trade lane in week 22 will bring offered capacity in line with the peak season in 2021, with another climb in week 29 leading the weekly offered capacity over 500,000 TEU – higher than in any week in the 2019-2022 period.