The reefer container shipping fleet has increased by 15% year-on-year and could grow as much as 20% by 2018, according to Drewry’s latest Reefer Shipping Market Annual Review and Forecast.
However, the shipping consultants have found that the specialised reefer fleet is shrinking and shows no signs of reversing in the future.
Drewry added that with a capacity-restricted specialised fleet, there is no alternative but for cargo to be shipped by reefer containership – a trend that is accelerating with continued cargo growth. Seaborne reefer cargo grew 4.9% in 2014, all of which, and more, was carried by the reefer containership mode of transport.
Despite the significant increase in reefer containership capacity, cargo growth is also forecast to be strong. Drewry believe this will leave utilisation levels on the reefer containership fleet virtually unchanged over the next few years at 20.4 to 20.6 cargo tonnes per ‘000 cubic feet equivalent of reefer container capacity.
(Source: Drewry Maritime Research)
The report’s editor, Kevin Harding, said: “The specialised reefer fleet has an average age of 25 years. With little likelihood of new buildings, in the large size range at least, ongoing recycling is inevitable, as is a shrinking fleet. However, the containership order book is substantial and is expected to remain so.”
Notwithstanding these developments, specialised reefer operator Seatrade is investing in a new building programme of fully containerised reefer vessels, seeking to differentiate itself from the liner container carriers with shorter transit times, direct routings and reefer-dedicated box shipping services.
Despite the fleet changes for both modes of transport, cargo flows are forecast to continue to increase and therefore to weather any economic or climatic difficulties, at least on a global basis, although this will be tested in 2015/16 with the anticipated El Niño.
Harding concluded: “Overall utilisation levels are forecast to be relatively stable, although undoubtedly there will continue to be strong competition between the modes at a trade lane level.”