Brexit reduced overall EU-UK goods trade flows by almost one-fifth

Trade from the EU to the UK fell by a staggering 20 per cent relative to if Brexit had not occurred, according to new analysis.

Research released 19 October by the Economic & Social Research Institute (ESRI) shows reductions in UK to EU goods trade by 16 per cent and trade from the EU to UK by 20 per cent relative to the scenario in which Brexit had not occurred.

The comparison scenario is that trade with the UK should have been expected to grow at a similar pace to that of the same products being traded with other EU partner countries around the world.

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Although goods trade between the EU and UK recovered most of its previous level in value terms following the sharp fall in the early months of 2021, the research finds that this recovery leaves it well below the levels that would have been expected if it had performed on a comparable level with other trade partners.

“We also look across EU member states using this hybrid data approach and find that Brexit has led to a significant decline in trade with the UK in almost all cases although by varying magnitudes,” the report wrote.

“For most countries across the EU, the size of the impact is broadly similar for both export and imports.”

Ireland stands out as having had a particularly large reduction in imports from the UK relative to its other international trade patterns.

Exports from Ireland to the UK, on the other hand, continue to perform in line with those of other markets with no notable impact to date of Brexit on the total levels traded.

Earlier this year, UK port operators expressed concern over a government delay on Brexit border checks, arguing millions of pounds invested in infrastructure will be wasted if the postponement goes ahead.