Not many are bold enough to look through the misery and use the window of opportunity to make the changes necessary to be ready for the time when the volume catches up again.

Some even doubt whether it will ever happen again. As I do not believe in guesstimates – we tend to be overconfident doing so, so the outcome of a guesstimate with regard to when the volume will pick-up again with a reliability of say 95% would range from 1 month to 3 years. Not very useful right?

Still, where many terminals found costly, complicated ways to add capacity – think of refurbishing or converting the yard – now there are simple ways, as the yard is less occupied. Yes, many terminals are big empty container parks, but they can be condensed to create space for construction works. Costs of raw materials have sunk, builders are more willing to consider discounts (not only builders by the way), and therefore the conditions to invest now are positive.

It will require leadership beyond the fear for failure, ensuring our people’s jobs, to steer through the heavy storm. This holds for all companies in all sectors, but for the transportation sector (growing twice as hard as the global economy, but also declining twice as hard – this economic law unfortunately applies) in particular. However, we will need our well-trained people in the near future, and in many countries that are badly hit, the availability of educated and experienced staff is still an issue. Therefore my recommendation: accept low margins, but ensure the jobs. Cutting jobs will deepen the economic downturn, as we remove the last straw to grasp when it concerns faith in the future. Shareholders back-off: ethic leadership before material leadership counts!